Market Breadth Data******************************
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
By the looks of this chart, one could be justified in saying that the index has painted itself into a corner.
Considering that there is a short cycle due on the 30th, a breakout from this tight range could easily turn out to be a fake. Therefore, I’m offering an alternative view for the CIT sequence.
Thursday, January 25, 2007
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Monday, January 22, 2007
The short cycle due on the 21st sure packed a lot of punch. It is interesting to note that there is a similar short-term cycle due on the 23rd. Let’s see if it can pack enough of a counter-punch.
As noted before, these types of cycles provide excellent short-term trading opportunities, although they may not necessarily signal a CIT.
In order to differentiate between the different cycles, I've labeled the short-term cycles as "sc" on the calendar, and will update them on the chart only if they result in a CIT.
As noted before, these types of cycles provide excellent short-term trading opportunities, although they may not necessarily signal a CIT.
In order to differentiate between the different cycles, I've labeled the short-term cycles as "sc" on the calendar, and will update them on the chart only if they result in a CIT.
Sunday, January 21, 2007
So far so good.
The CIT date system continues to perform like clockwork, and the fractal nailed the date of the January high, which completes a full circle or a whole cycle.
That’s where it gets interesting. The SPX is close to a breakout and, if it does not occur within the next time window, it would mean that a more substantial retracement is in store.
Sunday, January 14, 2007
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Sunday, January 07, 2007
In December, I pointed out that the S&P was forming negative divergences with money flow. This is usually a sign of distribution associated with market tops. There has been no damage to the weekly trend so far, but the daily chart shows lower highs and lower lows.
The market is getting oversold and the first CIT date for 2007 is on Jan 11th. The next few swings, I believe, will be crucial in determining whether we stay in a trading range or break out of it. As usual, the Zero Gann lines and the support/resistance levels will provide the answer.
In addition to the CIT dates marked on the chart and calendar, there are short term cycle turns on Jan 21st, 23rd and 30th. These cycles, so far, have been more closely associated with intraday moves, so I’ll keep them separate.
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Let’s start 2007 with a longer term perspective.
Attached is my forecast for the first half of the year. There are two distinct scenarios, depending on how the year begins. After June the two merge but I’ll talk about that later.
It should be noted that the more important part of the forecast is the direction of the trend, and not its magnitude.
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